Black Canyon City Star Party
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Black Canyon City Star Party clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-11-08.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	3 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 6% 69%	105223
	Night	4 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 6% 68%	102661
Transparency	Day	16% 4 5% 14% 25% 36%	104990
	Night	17% 4 5% 13% 24% 37%	102484
Seeing	Day	7% 13% 29% 33% 15% 3	15010
	Night	5% 5% 18% 39% 29% 4	25181

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover SW (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	5% 5% 3 5% 3 3 3 2 4 4 64%	2858
	11th to 20th	Day	4 4 1 5% 4 3 4 3 3 5% 64%	2860
	21st to end	Day	12% 6% 1 4 3 3 4 3 5% 6% 51%	3146
February	1st to 10th	Day	5% 4 1 4 3 3 3 2 5% 5% 65%	1790
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 3 1 4 3 3 4 3 5% 6% 60%	1850
	21st to end	Day	6% 4 1 5% 3 3 4 3 4 6% 61%	1570
March	1st to 10th	Day	4 4 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 7% 66%	3435
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 6% 2 3 3 3 4 3 5% 7% 58%	3490
	21st to end	Day	4 5% 1 4 3 3 3 2 5% 6% 64%	3825
April	1st to 10th	Day	2 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 5% 7% 69%	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 5% 75%	2174
	21st to end	Day	2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 6% 76%	2470
May	1st to 10th	Day	1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 86%	4110
	11th to 20th	Day	2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 6% 76%	4071
	21st to end	Day	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 88%	4477
June	1st to 10th	Day	1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 5% 81%	2470
	11th to 20th	Day	1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 88%	2470
	21st to end	Day	1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 78%	2470
July	1st to 10th	Day	1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 5% 77%	4110
	11th to 20th	Day	2 2 1 4 3 4 5% 5% 7% 11% 57%	4110
	21st to end	Day	3 3 1 3 4 4 6% 5% 8% 10% 53%	4454
August	1st to 10th	Day	3 2 1 4 3 4 5% 5% 8% 12% 52%	4092
	11th to 20th	Day	1 2 1 3 2 3 4 4 6% 7% 66%	4028
	21st to end	Day	2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 5% 7% 68%	4135
September	1st to 10th	Day	4 3 1 3 2 2 3 3 5% 7% 66%	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	2 2 1 2 2 1 1 3 3 4 80%	2090
	21st to end	Day	3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 77%	2090
October	1st to 10th	Day	2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 3 4 80%	3440
	11th to 20th	Day	3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 85%	3150
	21st to end	Day	1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 5% 79%	3438
November	1st to 10th	Day	2 2 1 3 2 2 3 2 3 6% 73%	1925
	11th to 20th	Day	1 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 4 5% 74%	1710
	21st to end	Day	6% 4 1 4 2 2 3 3 3 6% 67%	1710
December	1st to 10th	Day	7% 5% 1 4 4 4 3 3 4 6% 60%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 6% 2 6% 5% 3 4 4 7% 6% 50%	2169
	21st to end	Day	10% 5% 2 7% 4 2 3 3 4 6% 55%	3146
January	1st to 10th	Night	5% 4 1 4 3 3 3 3 4 5% 63%	4097
	11th to 20th	Night	4 3 1 3 2 3 2 3 3 5% 71%	4110
	21st to end	Night	13% 7% 2 4 3 3 4 3 4 7% 51%	4521
February	1st to 10th	Night	6% 4 1 3 3 2 3 3 5% 5% 66%	2385
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 6% 1 4 2 2 3 3 4 5% 63%	2218
	21st to end	Night	9% 4 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 6% 60%	1884
March	1st to 10th	Night	3 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 5% 6% 70%	3437
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 4 2 4 4 4 4 3 4 7% 57%	3490
	21st to end	Night	6% 4 1 3 3 2 4 4 5% 8% 61%	3828
April	1st to 10th	Night	3 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 5% 6% 70%	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 5% 76%	1949
	21st to end	Night	1 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 5% 81%	1710
May	1st to 10th	Night	1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 83%	2860
	11th to 20th	Night	2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 4 5% 78%	2834
	21st to end	Night	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 90%	3110
June	1st to 10th	Night	1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 5% 80%	1710
	11th to 20th	Night	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 88%	1710
	21st to end	Night	1 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 3 4 78%	1710
July	1st to 10th	Night	1 1 1 3 2 3 4 3 5% 6% 72%	2860
	11th to 20th	Night	1 1 1 3 3 3 4 5% 7% 11% 59%	2860
	21st to end	Night	2 3 1 4 3 4 5% 5% 8% 12% 52%	3109
August	1st to 10th	Night	2 2 1 4 4 5% 6% 6% 11% 16% 42%	2847
	11th to 20th	Night	1 1 1 3 2 3 5% 5% 6% 9% 63%	2811
	21st to end	Night	2 2 1 3 3 4 4 4 5% 8% 64%	3533
September	1st to 10th	Night	3 3 1 4 2 4 4 4 6% 10% 59%	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	1 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 4 78%	2090
	21st to end	Night	2 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 76%	2090
October	1st to 10th	Night	2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 78%	3538
	11th to 20th	Night	2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 5% 82%	3778
	21st to end	Night	2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 6% 79%	4120
November	1st to 10th	Night	4 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 74%	2310
	11th to 20th	Night	2 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 4 4 76%	2470
	21st to end	Night	6% 3 1 3 2 2 3 3 4 5% 68%	2470
December	1st to 10th	Night	7% 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 6% 64%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 4 3 6% 4 3 4 3 6% 7% 53%	3041
	21st to end	Night	9% 6% 2 4 3 4 4 3 4 5% 56%	4521

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	25% 4 4 16% 35% 18%	2859
	11th to 20th	Day	23% 4 4 21% 29% 19%	2860
	21st to end	Day	31% 5% 6% 13% 30% 14%	3146
February	1st to 10th	Day	22% 3 6% 13% 25% 31%	1790
	11th to 20th	Day	24% 4 4 17% 25% 25%	1860
	21st to end	Day	24% 4 4 16% 27% 25%	1570
March	1st to 10th	Day	17% 3 5% 20% 35% 20%	3435
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 6% 8% 19% 27% 18%	3490
	21st to end	Day	20% 4 6% 21% 34% 15%	3825
April	1st to 10th	Day	15% 4 4 11% 35% 32%	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 2 4 10% 26% 47%	2177
	21st to end	Day	11% 3 3 9% 27% 46%	2470
May	1st to 10th	Day	7% 2 3 9% 25% 55%	4110
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 2 4 8% 23% 52%	4074
	21st to end	Day	5% 1 1 5% 17% 71%	4477
June	1st to 10th	Day	8% 1 2 5% 25% 59%	2470
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 1 1 3 13% 77%	2470
	21st to end	Day	10% 2 3 8% 17% 59%	2470
July	1st to 10th	Day	10% 3 5% 7% 13% 62%	4046
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 6% 9% 22% 30% 14%	4041
	21st to end	Day	22% 7% 12% 22% 27% 11%	4314
August	1st to 10th	Day	21% 6% 13% 28% 15% 17%	4078
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 5% 8% 19% 29% 24%	4067
	21st to end	Day	15% 4 7% 15% 29% 29%	4134
September	1st to 10th	Day	18% 4 7% 13% 24% 33%	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	10% 3 4 8% 28% 47%	2090
	21st to end	Day	12% 3 3 8% 26% 48%	2090
October	1st to 10th	Day	10% 2 3 8% 16% 60%	3440
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 2 3 6% 34% 48%	3150
	21st to end	Day	10% 1 4 5% 26% 53%	3438
November	1st to 10th	Day	14% 3 4 13% 31% 36%	1925
	11th to 20th	Day	14% 2 3 13% 26% 41%	1710
	21st to end	Day	20% 3 5% 11% 28% 33%	1710
December	1st to 10th	Day	26% 4 5% 15% 21% 29%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	31% 5% 8% 18% 20% 19%	2168
	21st to end	Day	30% 5% 5% 21% 25% 13%	3146
January	1st to 10th	Night	23% 5% 4 16% 33% 20%	4097
	11th to 20th	Night	17% 3 3 22% 37% 18%	4110
	21st to end	Night	34% 5% 4 11% 28% 18%	4521
February	1st to 10th	Night	22% 2 6% 12% 25% 33%	2385
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 3 5% 15% 26% 27%	2219
	21st to end	Night	26% 3 4 12% 26% 29%	1884
March	1st to 10th	Night	14% 4 5% 21% 31% 25%	3437
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 6% 6% 17% 26% 23%	3490
	21st to end	Night	18% 6% 6% 19% 32% 19%	3828
April	1st to 10th	Night	16% 3 4 11% 28% 37%	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 2 3 7% 27% 48%	1949
	21st to end	Night	9% 3 3 9% 28% 49%	1710
May	1st to 10th	Night	7% 2 3 7% 22% 59%	2860
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 2 3 9% 20% 58%	2835
	21st to end	Night	4 1 1 5% 16% 73%	3110
June	1st to 10th	Night	9% 2 3 4 17% 64%	1710
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 2 1 4 10% 77%	1710
	21st to end	Night	12% 2 2 5% 14% 65%	1710
July	1st to 10th	Night	12% 4 6% 7% 12% 60%	2815
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 6% 8% 19% 32% 19%	2806
	21st to end	Night	20% 7% 12% 22% 22% 17%	3011
August	1st to 10th	Night	22% 9% 15% 24% 12% 18%	2838
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 6% 10% 17% 26% 25%	2838
	21st to end	Night	18% 4 6% 15% 21% 36%	3533
September	1st to 10th	Night	20% 6% 10% 17% 16% 32%	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 4 4 9% 24% 50%	2090
	21st to end	Night	13% 4 3 7% 21% 53%	2090
October	1st to 10th	Night	11% 2 3 7% 15% 61%	3538
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 1 2 8% 24% 56%	3778
	21st to end	Night	10% 2 3 5% 21% 60%	4120
November	1st to 10th	Night	14% 3 4 11% 31% 38%	2310
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 3 4 12% 25% 43%	2470
	21st to end	Night	20% 3 4 11% 26% 36%	2470
December	1st to 10th	Night	22% 3 6% 16% 21% 32%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	30% 5% 5% 14% 24% 22%	3041
	21st to end	Night	30% 5% 6% 18% 25% 16%	4521

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	16% 14% 30% 32% 8%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	14% 10% 34% 27% 14%	270
	21st to end	Day	13% 15% 28% 28% 15% 1	297
February	1st to 10th	Day	11% 17% 33% 26% 12% 1	350
	11th to 20th	Day	12% 24% 34% 24% 6%	455
	21st to end	Day	16% 24% 37% 17% 6%	382
March	1st to 10th	Day	12% 26% 33% 22% 6% 1	460
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 21% 30% 25% 10% 1	460
	21st to end	Day	12% 28% 36% 17% 7% 1	506
April	1st to 10th	Day	11% 20% 35% 23% 10% 2	460
	11th to 20th	Day	10% 23% 39% 19% 7% 2	452
	21st to end	Day	6% 25% 36% 23% 9% 1	460
May	1st to 10th	Day	4 21% 36% 28% 9% 1	463
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 14% 38% 30% 12% 2	488
	21st to end	Day	6% 16% 39% 26% 11% 2	529
June	1st to 10th	Day	2 11% 32% 38% 13% 4	490
	11th to 20th	Day	4 12% 36% 32% 13% 3	490
	21st to end	Day	2 8% 29% 43% 13% 5%	490
July	1st to 10th	Day	3 25% 46% 20% 5%	486
	11th to 20th	Day	3 2 15% 48% 23% 9%	484
	21st to end	Day	4 1 12% 46% 25% 12%	531
August	1st to 10th	Day	3 3 16% 43% 27% 9%	487
	11th to 20th	Day	2 3 14% 49% 23% 8%	477
	21st to end	Day	3 1 15% 45% 27% 9%	539
September	1st to 10th	Day	4 4 20% 46% 20% 5%	490
	11th to 20th	Day	3 6% 32% 38% 18% 2	490
	21st to end	Day	5% 9% 27% 38% 18% 3	490
October	1st to 10th	Day	3 11% 31% 35% 19% 1	466
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 9% 27% 41% 13% 4	300
	21st to end	Day	5% 12% 27% 33% 19% 4	330
November	1st to 10th	Day	7% 10% 30% 38% 12% 2	291
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 10% 28% 37% 15% 4	270
	21st to end	Day	11% 11% 29% 30% 17% 1	270
December	1st to 10th	Day	11% 13% 29% 33% 13%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	4 16% 33% 32% 13% 1	270
	21st to end	Day	18% 16% 31% 28% 7% 1	297
January	1st to 10th	Night	9% 6% 25% 41% 16% 3	760
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 6% 28% 38% 17% 4	760
	21st to end	Night	12% 9% 24% 37% 15% 3	836
February	1st to 10th	Night	9% 8% 23% 37% 20% 3	760
	11th to 20th	Night	9% 6% 24% 44% 15% 1	744
	21st to end	Night	12% 7% 26% 37% 15% 3	628
March	1st to 10th	Night	8% 7% 28% 40% 16% 2	760
	11th to 20th	Night	10% 6% 21% 34% 26% 4	760
	21st to end	Night	7% 7% 23% 39% 22% 3	836
April	1st to 10th	Night	4 5% 24% 45% 18% 3	760
	11th to 20th	Night	4 10% 26% 37% 21% 2	653
	21st to end	Night	2 6% 26% 42% 22% 3	570
May	1st to 10th	Night	2 6% 19% 47% 24% 3	570
	11th to 20th	Night	3 6% 17% 43% 29% 3	561
	21st to end	Night	2 3 17% 44% 30% 3	617
June	1st to 10th	Night	1 3 11% 45% 37% 2	570
	11th to 20th	Night	2 1 16% 42% 36% 4	570
	21st to end	Night	2 2 10% 37% 45% 4	570
July	1st to 10th	Night	2 1 6% 41% 46% 4	555
	11th to 20th	Night	2 3 28% 56% 11%	552
	21st to end	Night	4 1 4 27% 53% 12%	624
August	1st to 10th	Night	2 1 3 26% 55% 12%	567
	11th to 20th	Night	1 2 3 29% 55% 9%	564
	21st to end	Night	2 1 6% 28% 53% 9%	752
September	1st to 10th	Night	5% 3 7% 34% 43% 8%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	2 1 11% 40% 42% 4	760
	21st to end	Night	3 2 15% 43% 33% 4	760
October	1st to 10th	Night	4 4 17% 46% 26% 2	760
	11th to 20th	Night	3 3 21% 44% 27% 3	760
	21st to end	Night	3 6% 19% 37% 26% 8%	836
November	1st to 10th	Night	5% 4 18% 41% 27% 5%	770
	11th to 20th	Night	3 3 22% 43% 25% 4	760
	21st to end	Night	8% 7% 22% 37% 23% 3	760
December	1st to 10th	Night	8% 6% 21% 42% 21% 2	760
	11th to 20th	Night	10% 6% 22% 41% 18% 2	760
	21st to end	Night	11% 7% 25% 38% 16% 2	836

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