Elizabeth Ann Machol Dragonfly Observatory
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Elizabeth Ann Machol Dragonfly Observatory clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-11-12.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	3 4 1 4 4 4 4 4 5% 7% 59%	104996
	Night	3 4 1 4 3 4 4 3 5% 7% 60%	102951
Transparency	Day	22% 4 7% 16% 28% 23%	104759
	Night	21% 4 7% 17% 29% 22%	102777
Seeing	Day	6% 13% 26% 30% 19% 6%	14529
	Night	5% 7% 23% 38% 23% 4	24559

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover SW (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	3 4 2 7% 5% 4 4 4 3 5% 59%	2858
	11th to 20th	Day	3 5% 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 6% 65%	2860
	21st to end	Day	8% 7% 2 6% 4 3 4 4 6% 7% 49%	3146
February	1st to 10th	Day	3 6% 2 4 3 3 3 4 5% 5% 62%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 6% 2 5% 3 2 3 4 4 5% 61%	1781
	21st to end	Day	3 7% 2 4 3 3 3 3 5% 4 64%	1712
March	1st to 10th	Day	2 6% 2 5% 3 3 4 3 4 5% 63%	3444
	11th to 20th	Day	4 5% 1 6% 4 4 4 4 5% 7% 56%	3490
	21st to end	Day	1 5% 2 6% 5% 5% 5% 4 7% 7% 53%	3825
April	1st to 10th	Day	1 3 1 3 4 3 3 3 5% 6% 68%	2216
	11th to 20th	Day	2 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 5% 74%	2251
	21st to end	Day	2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 6% 74%	2280
May	1st to 10th	Day	1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 82%	3800
	11th to 20th	Day	1 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 5% 7% 71%	3999
	21st to end	Day	1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 85%	4477
June	1st to 10th	Day	3 3 1 3 3 3 4 3 5% 9% 64%	2470
	11th to 20th	Day	2 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 6% 73%	2470
	21st to end	Day	3 4 1 5% 6% 4 5% 5% 7% 7% 52%	2470
July	1st to 10th	Day	3 3 1 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 9% 51%	4110
	11th to 20th	Day	2 3 2 6% 6% 7% 8% 6% 8% 11% 40%	4110
	21st to end	Day	5% 5% 3 8% 7% 7% 9% 7% 10% 11% 28%	4454
August	1st to 10th	Day	3 4 2 6% 5% 6% 7% 6% 9% 11% 40%	4092
	11th to 20th	Day	3 3 2 4 4 5% 7% 6% 8% 10% 47%	3738
	21st to end	Day	5% 5% 2 9% 6% 7% 7% 5% 8% 9% 36%	4180
September	1st to 10th	Day	8% 5% 2 7% 4 5% 5% 5% 8% 8% 43%	2280
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 4 2 4 4 5% 5% 4 5% 7% 56%	2187
	21st to end	Day	3 3 1 4 3 3 4 3 5% 6% 65%	2043
October	1st to 10th	Day	3 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 5% 6% 70%	3170
	11th to 20th	Day	4 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 5% 71%	3150
	21st to end	Day	2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 83%	3438
November	1st to 10th	Day	2 2 1 3 3 3 4 3 3 6% 70%	1959
	11th to 20th	Day	2 3 2 4 3 3 3 2 5% 5% 70%	1910
	21st to end	Day	5% 5% 2 5% 4 3 4 4 5% 6% 58%	1891
December	1st to 10th	Day	5% 5% 1 4 3 3 4 3 5% 7% 60%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 8% 2 7% 4 5% 3 2 4 6% 52%	2169
	21st to end	Day	3 6% 1 3 4 4 4 4 5% 6% 60%	3146
January	1st to 10th	Night	4 6% 2 6% 3 4 6% 4 5% 6% 55%	4097
	11th to 20th	Night	3 3 1 3 3 3 3 2 3 5% 72%	4110
	21st to end	Night	7% 9% 3 6% 4 5% 5% 4 6% 7% 45%	4521
February	1st to 10th	Night	3 4 2 4 4 3 4 4 4 6% 63%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 5% 2 4 4 4 3 3 4 5% 62%	2284
	21st to end	Night	4 5% 1 3 4 3 4 3 4 5% 65%	1737
March	1st to 10th	Night	2 3 1 3 2 3 4 3 6% 7% 65%	3430
	11th to 20th	Night	4 5% 2 5% 3 3 4 3 4 6% 61%	3490
	21st to end	Night	2 3 1 4 3 4 5% 4 6% 9% 60%	3828
April	1st to 10th	Night	2 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 5% 6% 69%	1962
	11th to 20th	Night	2 2 1 3 2 2 3 3 3 6% 73%	1877
	21st to end	Night	1 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 4 6% 74%	1900
May	1st to 10th	Night	1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 82%	3170
	11th to 20th	Night	2 1 1 3 2 2 4 3 4 5% 72%	2902
	21st to end	Night	1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 85%	3110
June	1st to 10th	Night	3 3 2 3 4 3 3 4 5% 6% 64%	1710
	11th to 20th	Night	2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 6% 72%	1710
	21st to end	Night	4 4 2 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 7% 8% 49%	1710
July	1st to 10th	Night	3 3 1 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 9% 11% 47%	2860
	11th to 20th	Night	2 4 2 6% 6% 6% 8% 7% 10% 14% 37%	2860
	21st to end	Night	4 5% 3 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 11% 13% 30%	3109
August	1st to 10th	Night	3 3 1 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 10% 16% 36%	2847
	11th to 20th	Night	3 4 2 6% 5% 6% 7% 5% 9% 12% 41%	3100
	21st to end	Night	4 5% 3 7% 6% 7% 9% 7% 10% 10% 30%	3487
September	1st to 10th	Night	6% 5% 2 5% 4 4 6% 5% 8% 9% 47%	1900
	11th to 20th	Night	4 3 1 4 3 4 5% 4 4 7% 60%	1987
	21st to end	Night	3 2 1 4 3 3 4 2 3 5% 69%	2137
October	1st to 10th	Night	2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 5% 5% 71%	3800
	11th to 20th	Night	4 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 5% 75%	3778
	21st to end	Night	1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 5% 79%	4120
November	1st to 10th	Night	2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 4 6% 71%	2340
	11th to 20th	Night	2 3 1 3 3 2 3 2 5% 5% 72%	2292
	21st to end	Night	6% 4 2 4 4 3 3 3 4 7% 61%	2284
December	1st to 10th	Night	5% 4 1 3 2 4 4 3 5% 7% 61%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 5% 2 6% 4 4 5% 4 5% 7% 53%	3041
	21st to end	Night	6% 5% 2 5% 3 4 5% 3 5% 6% 58%	4521

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	24% 2 3 15% 41% 15%	2859
	11th to 20th	Day	19% 2 4 22% 37% 16%	2860
	21st to end	Day	30% 2 4 24% 28% 12%	3146
February	1st to 10th	Day	21% 3 5% 16% 27% 27%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	24% 3 3 15% 29% 26%	1790
	21st to end	Day	22% 2 2 13% 31% 30%	1712
March	1st to 10th	Day	22% 2 2 11% 40% 23%	3444
	11th to 20th	Day	25% 3 3 20% 33% 16%	3490
	21st to end	Day	24% 3 4 21% 32% 15%	3825
April	1st to 10th	Day	16% 3 3 13% 39% 27%	2216
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 2 2 11% 33% 39%	2254
	21st to end	Day	13% 2 2 14% 35% 34%	2280
May	1st to 10th	Day	8% 1 2 8% 29% 51%	3800
	11th to 20th	Day	12% 2 4 12% 32% 38%	4002
	21st to end	Day	7% 2 2 6% 19% 65%	4477
June	1st to 10th	Day	17% 3 3 13% 31% 32%	2470
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 2 2 9% 24% 50%	2470
	21st to end	Day	27% 5% 8% 14% 20% 25%	2470
July	1st to 10th	Day	26% 6% 14% 14% 19% 21%	4046
	11th to 20th	Day	32% 8% 15% 25% 16% 3	4041
	21st to end	Day	42% 9% 24% 18% 5%	4314
August	1st to 10th	Day	31% 8% 18% 28% 13% 2	4078
	11th to 20th	Day	26% 8% 11% 24% 28% 3	3774
	21st to end	Day	38% 8% 15% 17% 18% 4	4179
September	1st to 10th	Day	34% 6% 11% 18% 20% 12%	2280
	11th to 20th	Day	25% 4 6% 20% 30% 15%	2187
	21st to end	Day	18% 5% 5% 18% 32% 21%	2043
October	1st to 10th	Day	14% 4 5% 13% 31% 34%	3170
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 3 3 11% 41% 25%	3150
	21st to end	Day	9% 1 2 12% 35% 41%	3438
November	1st to 10th	Day	15% 2 4 19% 33% 27%	1959
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 2 5% 17% 31% 29%	1910
	21st to end	Day	26% 3 4 16% 31% 20%	1891
December	1st to 10th	Day	22% 3 6% 21% 29% 18%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	34% 2 6% 20% 23% 15%	2168
	21st to end	Day	21% 3 6% 16% 34% 19%	3146
January	1st to 10th	Night	24% 2 5% 17% 37% 14%	4097
	11th to 20th	Night	17% 1 4 21% 43% 14%	4110
	21st to end	Night	33% 1 5% 23% 27% 11%	4521
February	1st to 10th	Night	21% 3 5% 17% 27% 27%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 3 3 19% 28% 24%	2285
	21st to end	Night	21% 2 3 16% 30% 29%	1737
March	1st to 10th	Night	15% 3 3 15% 45% 19%	3430
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 3 4 19% 36% 16%	3490
	21st to end	Night	16% 3 3 31% 33% 13%	3828
April	1st to 10th	Night	14% 3 4 17% 40% 23%	1962
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 3 2 12% 33% 37%	1877
	21st to end	Night	12% 3 3 16% 38% 29%	1900
May	1st to 10th	Night	9% 1 2 7% 36% 45%	3170
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 4 4 12% 33% 34%	2903
	21st to end	Night	7% 1 2 6% 20% 64%	3110
June	1st to 10th	Night	20% 4 4 11% 30% 32%	1710
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 2 4 8% 24% 49%	1710
	21st to end	Night	31% 5% 10% 12% 17% 25%	1710
July	1st to 10th	Night	26% 8% 14% 15% 18% 19%	2815
	11th to 20th	Night	32% 8% 14% 28% 15% 4	2806
	21st to end	Night	39% 8% 28% 19% 4 1	3011
August	1st to 10th	Night	30% 9% 23% 26% 9% 3	2838
	11th to 20th	Night	30% 7% 14% 21% 24% 4	3130
	21st to end	Night	42% 8% 18% 17% 13% 2	3487
September	1st to 10th	Night	29% 7% 13% 19% 19% 13%	1900
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 5% 8% 19% 27% 17%	1987
	21st to end	Night	18% 4 6% 17% 34% 20%	2137
October	1st to 10th	Night	14% 5% 5% 11% 34% 31%	3800
	11th to 20th	Night	14% 3 3 14% 39% 27%	3778
	21st to end	Night	9% 2 2 12% 31% 43%	4120
November	1st to 10th	Night	14% 2 4 17% 37% 26%	2340
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 2 4 19% 31% 29%	2292
	21st to end	Night	24% 2 5% 16% 32% 21%	2284
December	1st to 10th	Night	22% 3 6% 21% 27% 21%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	28% 3 8% 19% 25% 17%	3041
	21st to end	Night	25% 2 5% 18% 28% 22%	4521

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	11% 15% 34% 27% 11% 1	270
	11th to 20th	Day	9% 16% 28% 30% 13% 4	270
	21st to end	Day	6% 13% 34% 29% 15% 3	297
February	1st to 10th	Day	3 21% 29% 27% 14% 5%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 19% 32% 30% 7%	270
	21st to end	Day	10% 38% 31% 16% 4 1	367
March	1st to 10th	Day	10% 28% 35% 22% 4 1	460
	11th to 20th	Day	10% 24% 30% 25% 9% 2	460
	21st to end	Day	7% 36% 35% 16% 5% 1	506
April	1st to 10th	Day	6% 24% 39% 22% 8% 2	460
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 28% 33% 22% 7% 1	452
	21st to end	Day	7% 22% 38% 23% 8% 2	460
May	1st to 10th	Day	5% 17% 38% 28% 11%	463
	11th to 20th	Day	3 12% 36% 37% 10% 3	488
	21st to end	Day	3 14% 38% 33% 10% 1	529
June	1st to 10th	Day	4 6% 32% 38% 17% 2	490
	11th to 20th	Day	2 8% 35% 34% 17% 3	490
	21st to end	Day	7% 3 21% 41% 23% 5%	490
July	1st to 10th	Day	5% 1 14% 41% 28% 11%	486
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 7% 33% 38% 16%	484
	21st to end	Day	6% 2 8% 25% 40% 19%	531
August	1st to 10th	Day	6% 1 7% 33% 37% 16%	487
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 2 10% 37% 31% 13%	477
	21st to end	Day	6% 1 11% 29% 37% 16%	539
September	1st to 10th	Day	10% 3 16% 35% 28% 8%	490
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 2 21% 39% 26% 7%	490
	21st to end	Day	5% 5% 25% 37% 23% 6%	443
October	1st to 10th	Day	6% 9% 25% 29% 23% 8%	300
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 10% 21% 35% 20% 6%	300
	21st to end	Day	5% 12% 24% 28% 25% 8%	330
November	1st to 10th	Day	3 15% 31% 32% 15% 4	300
	11th to 20th	Day	3 10% 25% 35% 23% 4	273
	21st to end	Day	8% 18% 28% 31% 14% 2	270
December	1st to 10th	Day	5% 15% 26% 33% 19% 1	270
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 18% 31% 29% 13% 2	270
	21st to end	Day	9% 21% 32% 31% 6% 1	297
January	1st to 10th	Night	6% 9% 26% 38% 16% 4	760
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 7% 27% 38% 17% 3	760
	21st to end	Night	10% 9% 27% 36% 17% 3	836
February	1st to 10th	Night	3 10% 31% 36% 16% 4	760
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 11% 31% 39% 10% 1	744
	21st to end	Night	6% 17% 39% 29% 8% 1	628
March	1st to 10th	Night	5% 14% 36% 32% 11% 1	760
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 12% 31% 36% 14% 3	760
	21st to end	Night	4 15% 35% 33% 13% 1	836
April	1st to 10th	Night	3 11% 39% 36% 10% 1	632
	11th to 20th	Night	3 13% 40% 32% 11% 1	563
	21st to end	Night	2 13% 37% 35% 11% 2	570
May	1st to 10th	Night	4 8% 34% 44% 9% 1	570
	11th to 20th	Night	3 4 28% 48% 15% 1	561
	21st to end	Night	2 5% 32% 46% 14% 1	617
June	1st to 10th	Night	4 4 20% 51% 20% 1	570
	11th to 20th	Night	3 4 20% 52% 19% 1	570
	21st to end	Night	5% 3 17% 43% 29% 3	570
July	1st to 10th	Night	6% 1 8% 40% 38% 7%	555
	11th to 20th	Night	4 1 5% 29% 52% 10%	552
	21st to end	Night	6% 2 5% 25% 51% 12%	624
August	1st to 10th	Night	6% 1 4 22% 53% 15%	567
	11th to 20th	Night	4 1 6% 29% 50% 10%	564
	21st to end	Night	6% 1 5% 28% 52% 8%	627
September	1st to 10th	Night	7% 1 8% 36% 45% 4	570
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 1 8% 44% 37% 5%	657
	21st to end	Night	3 2 14% 43% 32% 6%	760
October	1st to 10th	Night	5% 2 18% 47% 25% 3	760
	11th to 20th	Night	4 5% 19% 45% 24% 3	760
	21st to end	Night	3 5% 21% 39% 26% 6%	836
November	1st to 10th	Night	3 4 22% 41% 24% 6%	780
	11th to 20th	Night	3 5% 22% 42% 24% 4	764
	21st to end	Night	7% 9% 23% 35% 21% 5%	760
December	1st to 10th	Night	8% 6% 23% 40% 19% 5%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 9% 27% 38% 17% 3	760
	21st to end	Night	9% 11% 23% 39% 15% 3	836

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