Mancave Observatory
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Mancave Observatory clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-11-12.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	7% 5% 2 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 7% 9% 38%	100920
	Night	8% 6% 2 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 9% 41%	98201
Transparency	Day	38% 9% 16% 19% 13% 4	104710
	Night	37% 9% 17% 20% 14% 4	102536
Seeing	Day	8% 4 16% 25% 26% 21%	15568
	Night	8% 3 16% 34% 28% 10%	25612

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover SE (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	10% 8% 3 8% 5% 4 4 4 6% 9% 40%	2836
	11th to 20th	Day	20% 9% 3 7% 4 4 4 3 5% 7% 34%	2840
	21st to end	Day	11% 6% 2 6% 5% 4 5% 4 6% 8% 43%	3394
February	1st to 10th	Day	10% 5% 2 6% 5% 4 4 4 7% 6% 46%	1900
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 4 2 5% 4 4 4 3 5% 8% 55%	1848
	21st to end	Day	7% 5% 1 5% 5% 5% 4 4 6% 6% 52%	1645
March	1st to 10th	Day	6% 6% 2 9% 5% 7% 6% 5% 7% 8% 40%	3435
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 3 2 5% 4 4 4 4 6% 11% 51%	3480
	21st to end	Day	9% 5% 2 4 4 4 4 3 5% 9% 52%	3815
April	1st to 10th	Day	5% 4 1 5% 5% 4 6% 5% 8% 10% 48%	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 5% 2 7% 4 5% 6% 5% 8% 9% 44%	2066
	21st to end	Day	5% 3 2 5% 5% 5% 6% 4 6% 8% 52%	2242
May	1st to 10th	Day	3 2 1 4 4 5% 4 3 6% 9% 58%	4047
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 5% 2 6% 5% 5% 5% 4 8% 11% 41%	4081
	21st to end	Day	4 4 2 5% 5% 5% 5% 4 6% 8% 52%	4476
June	1st to 10th	Day	11% 9% 3 9% 7% 8% 7% 6% 8% 9% 22%	2470
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 6% 3 10% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 26%	2470
	21st to end	Day	7% 8% 3 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 9% 9% 25%	2470
July	1st to 10th	Day	6% 6% 2 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 9% 12% 25%	4120
	11th to 20th	Day	4 5% 2 8% 7% 8% 10% 7% 11% 13% 24%	4120
	21st to end	Day	5% 6% 3 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 10% 12% 24%	4466
August	1st to 10th	Day	6% 6% 4 11% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 12% 26%	4075
	11th to 20th	Day	3 4 2 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 11% 33%	3673
	21st to end	Day	6% 5% 2 8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 10% 13% 25%	3828
September	1st to 10th	Day	7% 5% 3 10% 8% 8% 8% 7% 9% 11% 23%	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 8% 3 9% 8% 8% 8% 6% 8% 10% 23%	2090
	21st to end	Day	8% 6% 3 11% 7% 6% 7% 6% 8% 9% 30%	2090
October	1st to 10th	Day	10% 6% 3 9% 6% 6% 6% 5% 7% 9% 36%	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 6% 2 6% 4 5% 6% 4 5% 9% 46%	1935
	21st to end	Day	7% 5% 2 6% 5% 4 6% 4 6% 7% 48%	2090
November	1st to 10th	Day	7% 4 1 5% 5% 5% 5% 4 6% 8% 50%	1957
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 6% 2 6% 5% 5% 4 4 6% 8% 45%	1910
	21st to end	Day	8% 5% 2 6% 4 5% 5% 4 5% 9% 47%	1794
December	1st to 10th	Day	6% 5% 2 5% 6% 4 5% 4 7% 9% 47%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	10% 6% 2 6% 4 4 4 4 5% 8% 45%	2153
	21st to end	Day	11% 8% 3 9% 6% 6% 6% 4 6% 7% 34%	3124
January	1st to 10th	Night	11% 7% 3 8% 6% 5% 5% 4 6% 9% 36%	4109
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 11% 4 7% 5% 4 4 3 5% 7% 30%	4120
	21st to end	Night	10% 6% 2 8% 5% 5% 5% 5% 8% 8% 39%	4245
February	1st to 10th	Night	9% 6% 2 6% 4 4 5% 4 5% 8% 47%	2280
	11th to 20th	Night	9% 4 1 4 4 4 4 3 6% 7% 53%	2218
	21st to end	Night	6% 4 2 5% 4 4 5% 4 8% 8% 52%	1807
March	1st to 10th	Night	10% 7% 3 8% 5% 5% 6% 4 6% 7% 39%	3418
	11th to 20th	Night	4 4 1 6% 4 4 5% 5% 9% 11% 49%	3480
	21st to end	Night	9% 5% 2 5% 3 3 3 4 5% 7% 54%	3817
April	1st to 10th	Night	5% 4 2 4 3 4 3 4 6% 10% 55%	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 4 2 5% 3 4 4 4 7% 10% 51%	2063
	21st to end	Night	4 3 1 5% 4 4 4 3 5% 8% 57%	1936
May	1st to 10th	Night	4 4 1 5% 3 3 4 4 6% 8% 57%	2862
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 4 2 6% 4 4 4 4 6% 9% 50%	2812
	21st to end	Night	4 4 1 4 4 4 4 4 5% 7% 61%	3079
June	1st to 10th	Night	10% 5% 3 7% 5% 5% 6% 4 8% 9% 38%	1710
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 5% 2 6% 5% 5% 7% 5% 9% 14% 37%	1710
	21st to end	Night	5% 5% 2 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 9% 15% 32%	1710
July	1st to 10th	Night	5% 8% 4 10% 7% 6% 7% 6% 9% 11% 26%	2840
	11th to 20th	Night	4 6% 3 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 14% 26%	2840
	21st to end	Night	6% 7% 5% 12% 9% 9% 8% 6% 8% 10% 19%	3087
August	1st to 10th	Night	4 6% 3 9% 6% 6% 6% 5% 8% 13% 33%	2848
	11th to 20th	Night	3 4 2 5% 5% 7% 7% 6% 10% 14% 35%	3122
	21st to end	Night	5% 5% 2 8% 7% 7% 8% 7% 10% 13% 27%	3828
September	1st to 10th	Night	6% 7% 3 9% 5% 7% 6% 5% 10% 13% 29%	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	9% 6% 3 8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 8% 10% 29%	2090
	21st to end	Night	9% 7% 3 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 9% 9% 31%	2090
October	1st to 10th	Night	9% 6% 2 7% 6% 5% 6% 5% 7% 8% 40%	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 6% 3 5% 4 5% 4 3 7% 8% 49%	2242
	21st to end	Night	8% 6% 2 6% 4 3 5% 3 5% 8% 50%	2508
November	1st to 10th	Night	7% 5% 2 6% 5% 4 4 5% 6% 7% 49%	2341
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 5% 2 5% 5% 4 4 4 6% 7% 49%	2293
	21st to end	Night	8% 5% 2 6% 5% 4 4 3 7% 9% 47%	2382
December	1st to 10th	Night	7% 5% 2 6% 4 6% 4 3 6% 9% 48%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 6% 2 5% 4 3 4 4 5% 8% 47%	3042
	21st to end	Night	13% 7% 3 8% 5% 5% 6% 4 5% 7% 36%	4532

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	40% 6% 8% 21% 19% 6%	2837
	11th to 20th	Day	49% 4 5% 17% 18% 6%	2840
	21st to end	Day	38% 6% 7% 21% 22% 6%	3394
February	1st to 10th	Day	35% 6% 9% 20% 19% 10%	1900
	11th to 20th	Day	27% 5% 9% 23% 26% 11%	1858
	21st to end	Day	30% 6% 10% 19% 25% 11%	1645
March	1st to 10th	Day	40% 6% 14% 20% 15% 6%	3435
	11th to 20th	Day	27% 5% 14% 29% 20% 6%	3480
	21st to end	Day	29% 5% 9% 30% 18% 10%	3815
April	1st to 10th	Day	27% 7% 17% 25% 17% 7%	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	34% 7% 12% 19% 22% 6%	2066
	21st to end	Day	27% 7% 9% 23% 25% 8%	2242
May	1st to 10th	Day	20% 9% 12% 32% 21% 5%	4084
	11th to 20th	Day	33% 8% 18% 26% 14% 1	4085
	21st to end	Day	27% 8% 12% 33% 19% 2	4489
June	1st to 10th	Day	53% 10% 18% 14% 4	2470
	11th to 20th	Day	47% 11% 21% 17% 3	2470
	21st to end	Day	48% 13% 23% 13% 2	2470
July	1st to 10th	Day	45% 14% 30% 10% 1	4055
	11th to 20th	Day	43% 16% 33% 8%	4051
	21st to end	Day	45% 18% 26% 10% 1	4324
August	1st to 10th	Day	47% 11% 30% 9% 2	4062
	11th to 20th	Day	39% 13% 27% 16% 6%	3709
	21st to end	Day	44% 15% 29% 11% 1	3828
September	1st to 10th	Day	50% 15% 24% 11% 1	2090
	11th to 20th	Day	50% 13% 21% 13% 3	2090
	21st to end	Day	46% 11% 16% 17% 9% 2	2090
October	1st to 10th	Day	52% 10% 16% 11% 8% 4	3480
	11th to 20th	Day	29% 6% 9% 23% 29% 4	3188
	21st to end	Day	29% 5% 7% 26% 25% 8%	3428
November	1st to 10th	Day	30% 6% 11% 22% 19% 12%	1957
	11th to 20th	Day	35% 6% 9% 22% 20% 8%	1910
	21st to end	Day	33% 6% 11% 21% 21% 8%	1794
December	1st to 10th	Day	33% 6% 13% 25% 17% 6%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	37% 5% 10% 20% 18% 11%	2150
	21st to end	Day	47% 7% 10% 18% 15% 4	3124
January	1st to 10th	Night	43% 6% 10% 20% 17% 5%	4109
	11th to 20th	Night	53% 5% 7% 19% 12% 4	4120
	21st to end	Night	39% 8% 10% 17% 20% 6%	4245
February	1st to 10th	Night	36% 6% 10% 20% 20% 9%	2280
	11th to 20th	Night	29% 4 11% 23% 22% 11%	2219
	21st to end	Night	26% 7% 13% 20% 26% 8%	1807
March	1st to 10th	Night	42% 7% 13% 18% 14% 5%	3418
	11th to 20th	Night	26% 6% 23% 25% 16% 4	3480
	21st to end	Night	29% 5% 10% 27% 23% 7%	3817
April	1st to 10th	Night	23% 6% 20% 28% 16% 7%	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	26% 7% 17% 23% 22% 5%	2063
	21st to end	Night	25% 6% 14% 25% 25% 5%	1936
May	1st to 10th	Night	22% 10% 15% 31% 17% 5%	2889
	11th to 20th	Night	28% 8% 21% 31% 11% 1	2813
	21st to end	Night	21% 8% 14% 37% 20% 1	3087
June	1st to 10th	Night	39% 10% 23% 23% 6%	1710
	11th to 20th	Night	34% 13% 30% 20% 4	1710
	21st to end	Night	37% 17% 26% 15% 5%	1710
July	1st to 10th	Night	47% 13% 29% 10% 1	2795
	11th to 20th	Night	43% 18% 32% 7%	2786
	21st to end	Night	57% 15% 20% 8%	2988
August	1st to 10th	Night	40% 14% 30% 11% 6%	2837
	11th to 20th	Night	34% 14% 34% 15% 3	3152
	21st to end	Night	44% 17% 31% 7% 1	3828
September	1st to 10th	Night	41% 17% 27% 14% 2	2090
	11th to 20th	Night	47% 13% 22% 15% 2	2090
	21st to end	Night	44% 12% 19% 16% 8% 1	2090
October	1st to 10th	Night	54% 9% 14% 11% 8% 4	3480
	11th to 20th	Night	28% 6% 10% 29% 24% 3	3715
	21st to end	Night	30% 5% 8% 28% 23% 6%	4120
November	1st to 10th	Night	31% 7% 11% 21% 19% 11%	2341
	11th to 20th	Night	32% 7% 10% 24% 19% 8%	2293
	21st to end	Night	32% 6% 10% 24% 20% 7%	2382
December	1st to 10th	Night	32% 5% 13% 28% 17% 4	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	34% 5% 10% 21% 17% 12%	3044
	21st to end	Night	43% 8% 14% 16% 15% 4	4532

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	10% 9% 38% 28% 13% 2	270
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 13% 33% 29% 14% 3	270
	21st to end	Day	12% 16% 39% 26% 7% 1	297
February	1st to 10th	Day	10% 9% 29% 34% 14% 4	270
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 10% 30% 32% 17% 5%	270
	21st to end	Day	5% 7% 26% 38% 19% 4	300
March	1st to 10th	Day	5% 7% 35% 34% 17% 2	460
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 7% 27% 31% 26% 3	460
	21st to end	Day	6% 7% 26% 35% 22% 4	506
April	1st to 10th	Day	7% 7% 28% 36% 19% 3	460
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 6% 23% 36% 20% 7%	452
	21st to end	Day	6% 3 21% 31% 30% 9%	460
May	1st to 10th	Day	5% 2 13% 33% 33% 13%	463
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 5% 13% 26% 30% 17%	487
	21st to end	Day	6% 2 8% 21% 33% 29%	529
June	1st to 10th	Day	14% 4 7% 22% 26% 26%	490
	11th to 20th	Day	9% 2 7% 18% 28% 36%	490
	21st to end	Day	5% 2 4 12% 24% 53%	490
July	1st to 10th	Day	7% 2 2 8% 23% 59%	485
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 2 3 8% 30% 52%	484
	21st to end	Day	10% 2 5% 10% 24% 49%	532
August	1st to 10th	Day	8% 1 3 12% 27% 49%	486
	11th to 20th	Day	4 1 4 9% 27% 55%	479
	21st to end	Day	9% 2 4 14% 32% 38%	539
September	1st to 10th	Day	7% 2 5% 12% 32% 42%	490
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 3 5% 19% 34% 34%	490
	21st to end	Day	7% 2 4 20% 37% 31%	490
October	1st to 10th	Day	13% 2 12% 29% 33% 11%	490
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 3 16% 32% 33% 11%	490
	21st to end	Day	7% 2 17% 35% 30% 8%	539
November	1st to 10th	Day	10% 4 19% 32% 30% 6%	495
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 5% 22% 35% 23% 5%	464
	21st to end	Day	9% 5% 26% 32% 24% 5%	354
December	1st to 10th	Day	5% 7% 30% 31% 18% 8%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	12% 6% 29% 31% 19% 3	270
	21st to end	Day	6% 8% 25% 37% 19% 5%	297
January	1st to 10th	Night	10% 6% 28% 41% 15% 1	760
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 6% 23% 43% 15% 1	760
	21st to end	Night	13% 8% 30% 38% 12%	836
February	1st to 10th	Night	11% 6% 30% 37% 15%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	10% 6% 26% 41% 16% 1	743
	21st to end	Night	7% 4 24% 48% 17%	628
March	1st to 10th	Night	5% 5% 33% 45% 12%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 4 25% 46% 16% 1	760
	21st to end	Night	6% 3 28% 44% 17% 1	836
April	1st to 10th	Night	6% 3 24% 48% 18% 1	760
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 3 27% 45% 17% 1	751
	21st to end	Night	5% 3 24% 47% 21% 1	760
May	1st to 10th	Night	5% 1 12% 49% 31% 3	606
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 1 9% 46% 32% 4	561
	21st to end	Night	5% 2 7% 35% 44% 7%	617
June	1st to 10th	Night	10% 3 3 26% 46% 13%	570
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 1 5% 16% 49% 25%	570
	21st to end	Night	6% 1 3 9% 48% 33%	570
July	1st to 10th	Night	7% 2 2 7% 45% 37%	555
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 2 1 6% 45% 41%	552
	21st to end	Night	5% 2 2 8% 48% 35%	624
August	1st to 10th	Night	5% 1 2 8% 50% 33%	567
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 1 1 7% 41% 44%	573
	21st to end	Night	11% 3 4 18% 39% 25%	836
September	1st to 10th	Night	8% 1 4 16% 46% 25%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 3 4 22% 41% 19%	760
	21st to end	Night	12% 2 6% 24% 40% 15%	760
October	1st to 10th	Night	12% 2 12% 39% 30% 4	760
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 3 13% 36% 36% 3	760
	21st to end	Night	11% 3 17% 40% 28% 3	836
November	1st to 10th	Night	8% 4 21% 42% 23% 3	780
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 6% 21% 42% 21% 2	765
	21st to end	Night	9% 4 23% 44% 19% 1	760
December	1st to 10th	Night	8% 3 21% 41% 26% 1	760
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 3 21% 42% 21% 1	760
	21st to end	Night	10% 5% 22% 42% 20% 1	836

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